I Can’t Possibly Lose The Next Hand!The dealer just pulled five blackjacks in a row!”That’s what the voice on the phone said to me this evening.It was my friend, he’s in Las Vegas with his family and playing some cards while he’s there. He’s staying at one of the upscale resorts a few miles off of the strip and having a good time over the 4th of July weekend.
Well of course you can lose the next hand. Blackjack hands are unique statistical events, much like a coin toss. For example, if you were to flip a coin ten times and get heads on each of these flips, what would the odds be that the eleventh flip would also be heads? The answer is 50%. The prior flips have no influence on the future flips. This is why a sound betting strategy is key to long term success in blackjack.
Back to the phone call. The running joke we have has to do with another friend who years ago became famous not only with us, but with blackjack dealers all up and down the strip. You see, he’d hit a losing streak and them pump up his bet because “I can’t possibly lose the next hand!”. Right, how do you think that worked out for him.Let’s put it this way, he doesn’t play cards any longer.
While losing money is in no way a funny thing, there were some humorous results from his playing style. The funniest moment came late one night at Caesar’s Palace.Let’s for the sake of this story change my friend’s name to Leroy.
I, along with my friend who called me this evening were playing blackjack and holding our own pretty well. After playing at this table for about five or ten minutes I realized that the dealer kept saying the same thing to everyone who was considering playing their hand incorrectly. He’d say:
Don’t play like Leroy, Hmm. So I asked the dealer “are you talking about that guy over there at the other table?”. He glanced over, he looked back at me shaking his head and squinting his eyes. He said, “Yes, that’s the guy! Whatever you do, don’t play like him!”
So what’s the moral of this story? Have a plan and stick to it. Understand that the cards don’t think, they’re just cards. Don’t fight a losing deck and don’t try to catch a falling knife by betting into a losing streak.